A day at COP15

COP15, 10 December 2009, Felt like a giant conference, fair ground, party, airport, UN negotiation room at the same time. Probably quite a good combination. Lots of side talks, drinks, shoulder clapping, self important twads and frentic press stuff.

If you are there for the whole two weeks you will probably have Entzugserscheinungen.

I hope the mega Buzz there will create the context in which the big boys and girls will decide something useful at the end.

Surely something will come out, at least it should give a signal that the world will now seriously de-carbonize. And this signal should provide enough of direction for the private sector to switch investments from high carbon to low/no carbon.

And hopefully then, the (carbon) cost/benefit analysis of this big jamboree will be positive.

Count on the Unimaginable, Andre Wilkens, Berlin 9 November 2009

20 years ago, in the morning of 9 November 1989, most of the following would have been quite unimaginable for me (in no particular order of appearance):

I have returned to Berlin after nearly 20 years living in 4 Western European countries (Belgium, UK, Italy and Switzerland).

The country where I lived for 26 years does not exist anymore and was absorbed by its former enemy.

I am married to a British woman and have two kids whose mother tongue is English. Our language at home is English. I find it easier to write in English than in German (hence this article in English).

West and East Europe are united, almost border and visa free. Europe is a peaceful global power.

I travel freely, with ease and totally naturally between countries (this week I was in Budapest, Essen, Geneva and Madrid). I have travelled through most of Europe, as well as to the US, China, Africa, Australia.

China is a Super Power. Europe feels old fashioned in comparison.

I wear a suit most working days, but rarely a tie.

The Soviet Union has fallen apart. Russia has had a rollercoaster ride through poverty and then rapid economic development. A former KGB man from Dresden is now Russia’s prime minister and former and future president.

I moved through 7 currency systems (DDR Mark, D Mark, Belgian Franc, British Pound, Italian Lira, Euro, Swiss Franc, Euro).

The DDR government building is now a European Business School.

I still have my old friends in Berlin but my best friends are in Brussels, Copenhagen, Reykjavik, and Geneva.

Die Mauer ist weg. NVA and Stasi are gone.

I have worked for the EU, the UN, a global communications company, a Hungarian American billionaire philanthropist, and a German philanthropist from Essen. I was a UN Diplomat and gave it up to do something more worthwhile and fun.

There are doubts about the future of Capitalism.

I am a natural user of technology.

Twin brothers ran an EU country as President and Prime Minister (Poland). The richest man and owner of most media is the longest serving Prime Minister of Italy.

I have a car but it is not important to me. The Trabant is a cult car.

An East German natural scientist is the first female Chancellor of Germany.

I studied at the LSE in London and lived in Hamstead. I consider London my second home.

Berlin is the most interesting place in Europe. Some call it the cultural capital of the World. Berlin even became beautiful.

I am a house owner in Brussels. My favorite place is Italy where we are contemplating buying a family summer house.

FC Union Berlin plays 2 divisions above BFC Dynamo Berlin, neither play in the German top division.

One of the biggest global companies is called Google which makes hundreds of millions of dollars in a virtual reality called the Internet.

I am a co-founder of a pan European organization, The European Council on Foreign Relations to promote a united European foreign policy. The Vice Chair is a former German Foreign Minister who used to be a green radical wearing sneakers.

A bunch of terrorists crashed two airliners into the World Trade sky scrapers in New York. The Twin Towers collapsed and this marked the beginning of the decline of the USA .

My favorite daily newspaper is the Financial Times.

The Berlin Wall was build up again in 2009, as a temporary tourist attraction of giant domino stones. My son finds it quite real and hopes that we do not get stuck again.

Since 9 November 1989 I know that our imagination and dreams can never be big enough, really.

Andre Wilkens
Berlin, morning of 9 November 2009

The best job in the World

Much has been written about the successful PR campaign of the Queensland Tourism authority who spent relatively little money in advertising The Best Job in the World as a well paid ranger on a Queensland island having a good time and writing a blog about it. This became a truly viral marketing campaign with millions of followers, thousands of applicants and tons of media coverage. A great and innovative low budget campaign for Queensland Tourism.

Apart from the campaign, is a ranger job on an island in Australia really the best job in the world? It's a nice sabbatical and can lead to new thinking, but otherwise?
For me the best job in the world is the one which engages and challenges me, which has some sort of impact beyond myself and in which I work together with like-minded people. It should also be fun. Ultimately, the best job in the world should help to make this world a better place.

Do these jobs exist? Yes, they do. It could be running a locals bar in Italy, managing a volunteer sports club or working for a humanitarian organisation. All of those and many others could and should advertise jobs as 'The best job in the world, probably.' or 'One of the best jobs in the world, really'.

Let's learn from the Queensland campaign and use it to draw attention to the best jobs in the world, those which make a difference.

Looking for the coal and steel for global governance

Monnet's lessons for global governance
By Hakan Altinay and Andre Wilkens

Could a global emissions-trading system serve as the European Coal and Steel Community of our times?
Extraordinary times call for extraordinary ideas, like the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community, which later became the European Union. That idea transformed a continent of conflict and hatred into a haven of peace, stability and prosperity.
Jean Monnet conceived of it becoming even more. In his memoirs, he wrote that “the Community we have created is not an end in itself. The sovereign nations of the past can no longer solve the problems of the present; they cannot control their own future.” The European Community should only be a stage on the way to the organised world of tomorrow, he wrote.
The London G20 summit was a success in global crisis management, but it failed to show a direction for the climate crisis. These are extraordinary times that demand extraordinary ideas about how we can organise the world. Those grappling with global challenges such as climate change and globalised finance should learn three lessons from Monnet.
Firstly, Monnet and the other founding fathers seized on the yearning for a new order. Europeans pooled sovereignty only after having exhausted all other options and paid overwhelming costs. There is a growing understanding now that the forces that influence our daily well-being are not restricted to national borders. Securitisation practices in the US's financial sector affect economies half-way around the world. Carbons released in China influence crop yields in Africa. An epidemic in Africa may well depress air travel in Europe. Something better is needed, an increasing number of people believe.
Secondly, big ideas need a pragmatic foundation. Monnet had a big vision for Europe but he started very pragmatically by pooling sovereignty over the issues of coal and steel. Might it be that a truly global emissions-trading system, which addresses the most fundamental global issue of today, climate change, could become this century's equivalent of coal and steel?
Thirdly, the European project highlights the risk of overshooting. In 2005, two of the EU's founding members – France and the Netherlands – voted down steps considered vital by their political elites. Decades after the pooling of sovereignty began, European societies continue to view the nation state as their primary medium of participation. Enthusiasts for global governance should accept that few people will opt for an abstract world government over nation states, that most of us feel allegiance primarily to others who are like us. That is no bad thing. Nor does that spell trouble for better global governance. One needs to be multilateralist to be patriotic precisely because you cannot achieve the outcomes desired by your nation state by acting alone.
Monnet had the wisdom to view the EU as a step towards better world co-operation; he also had the pragmatism needed to roll out his vision in manner that outlived him. Advocates of enhanced global governance should learn from Europe's experiment.

Hakan Altinay is executive director of the Open Society Foundation (Turkey), and Andre Wilkens is a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2009/04/monnet's-lessons-for-global-governance/64593.aspx

How the UN bureaucracy can make the world a better place?

What have the UN bureaucracy, climate change and the global automotive crisis have in common? By linking them, they can help making the world a better place. And here is how:

1. Insights

The UN is seen by many primarily as a big bureaucracy. While thedre is of course more to the UN, there is no doubt that it is big and slow.
The UN is not in best shape. Even though the US hardcore attitude towards the UN has changed, it has lost much of its relevance and central stage.
For many the UN is also associated with a fleet of big, fat, white SUVs. While this is good for visibility, protection and often important in difficult terrain, big SUVs are now also a sign of the past, throw-away society. The latest car shows in Detroit and Geneva are a clear sign that the dominant colour of the automotive industry will be green.
Climate change is the biggest global challenge of our times and so far the UN has played an important role in putting the issue on the global agenda by trying to set targets and monitoring them. However, success in the real world has been meagre and where it happens it is difficult to credit the UN for it.
The global automotive industry is in crisis and is now going through a major transformation. Carmakers need to reposition themselves as providers of sustainable mobility.

2. The idea
The UN and its agencies/affiliates can use its global procurement power to commission the World Car of the future, helping to fight climate change and accelerating the transformation of the automotive industry. Doing this will also help reposition the UN as a foreward looking organisation with tangible impact in the real world.

3. How?
With a fleet of tens of thousands of vehicles the UN is one of the biggest owners and buyers of vehicles worldwide. Rather than buying what is on the market, the UN procurement experts should sit together with aid workers, engineers, car designers and environmentalists and draw up the specifications for the global UN car of the future. Car makers would then have to design a car with the incentive of winning the biggest global supply contract. The car itself can then also be produced in mass production after the UN initial orders have been filled. And all those car makers which did not get the UN contract will still be able to get their car design into production.

4. What are the benefits?
A better vehicle fleet will reduce CO2 emissions of the UN and make the UN lead by example. UN member states and donors will be confident that their contribution is used in a good way.
The action will positions the UN as a doer not just talker. It will also position the UN as innovative and relevant in the real world, and will turn the outdated UN SUV image into a proactive green image.
And the car industry will have a first global client who commits to making a big first mover order. This first big order will fund part of the development and production costs of the winning global car of the future.

And this is how you turn a difficult image (big, fat bureaucracy) into an advantage (big customer power) and help to make the world a better place. Sounds too easy, but let's try.

The Trillion Dollar Question - Two bets

What is the way out of the recession? This is the trillion dollar question these days. If someone could credible answer this question and had a money-back guarantee, the G-20 (which meet later this month) may even put their remaining funds together. This would be money well spent.

But there is noone who has the answer. And so the trillion dollars are spent by governments betting in the worldwide lottery. Some put their money into nationalising banks, others in betting on automotive and Japan is just handing out money for free. Some of these numbers may win. But it looks like the jackpot will continue to build up.

I am in no position to bet government billions. But if I had I would be torn between two bets: system change or Re-bubbling.

Bet 1: We are experiencing a total system failure. This is not just a banking crisis but a crisis of our whole economic system which is based on permanent growth and consumption. This system encouraged extreme risk taking, greed and decoupled the real from the virtual economy. In the last years we saw that a substantial part of our growth was based on invented values, or on nothing. Quite clever actually - making billions out of nothing. For many it’s now back to its original value-nothing.
This could all be a normal recession if it were not for the fact that it hits almost all sectors and all countries. We have a system failure. Can we just rebuild the same defaulted system? Or should we think again and come up with a new system? This is not about going back to socialism. This is about thinking new. Let’s have a competition for a new economic system which can be retrofitted to what we have at the moment. Or we wait a bit longer and we may have to go for a totally new model.

Bet 2: System change is hard, especially globally. It will probably not happen. Therefore, my second bet (and second best option) is to revitalise the current economic system by create a new bubble which creates growth, prosperity, jobs. But this time let’s at least create a bubble which makes sense, let’s create a green bubble. Governemnts have started putting stimulus money into green investment, on average 10-15%. This is good but not enough to create a green bubble. Let’s study the previous internet, housing and banking bubbles and transfer that knowledge into creating a green bubble. And when the green bubble deflates, let’s plan the next useful bubble already.

Disclaimer: Before taking this advice please consult your common sense. There is no money-back guaranty.

Who will win the competition for the Greenest Economy?

Joseph Stiglitz and Nicholas Stern write in the FT that "The US, in particular, has a window of opportunityto act on the financial crisis and at the same time, lay the foundations for a new wave of growth based on technologies for a low carbon economy."

Four months ago I put it like this: "Yes we can create a new energy revolution. While we are still in the midst of the financial crisis, global leaders are already turning to the fast approaching recession in the real economy. After major bailout packages for the banks, major economic stimulus packages are now in preparation. This is the right approach. But these packages should be targeted and used to stimulate the new, renewable-energy growth sector and help to initiate an energy revolution which creates sustainable growth now and in the future. The trillions of euros which will likely be spent on fighting the global recession should be spent on fighting climate change at the same time. It's a question of efficiency and forward thinking. And it combines the urgent with the important. The European Union's structural-funds model, based on EU co-funding of up to 80%, can be used to disburse the EU's new energy-stimulation package, making it attractive also for east-central European member-states to join the new energy revolution." http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/the-global-financial-crisis-opportunities-for-change

While I fully agree with the Stiglitz/Stern opinion, as a European I hope that Europe grabs this green growth opportunity. After all climate policy has been Europe's most successful foreign policy in the last 5 years.

Will now the US take the lead from Europe, or will it be China (see previous article on Wilkens Observer)? And does it matter? Whoever is the leader, it is good that there is competition for the Greenest Economy. Just a year ago the competition was rather for who can avoid expensive cuts in CO2 emmissions the longest.

In the end we may find that we needed a global recession and good old capitalist competition to deal effectivly with the challenge of climate change. And the Copenhagen conference will then only be a buraucratic confirmation on what is happening anyway in the real economy.

Wishful thinking? I think the current global recession is a reminder that everything is possible.